Fyodor Lukyanov: Iran is not Iraq

2026-03-01 - 19:23

Washington confronts a different kind of war ‘Shock and awe’ was the term used to describe the US operation against Iraq in spring 2003. In hindsight, it marked a turning point. The rapid defeat of the Ba’athist regime and the overthrow of Saddam Hussein created the impression that the US had acquired the ability to reshape entire regions at will. Reality turned out differently. The war did bring change, but not the kind its architects envisaged. The old order in the Middle East collapsed, replaced not by stability but by a chain of crises that demanded enormous resources to contain, with limited success. The blow to America’s global reputation proved lasting. At the end of winter 2026, the US and Israel launched Operation Epic Fury against Iran. In a sense, Iran’s emergence as the principal adversary of both countries is a direct consequence of the Iraq campaign two decades earlier. Whether today’s attackers can achieve quick and decisive results remains unclear. Iran is the most serious opponent the US has confronted directly in many decades. Even if military success is swift, the balance of forces is not in Iran’s favour, and even if