The UK’s growth in GDP per capita is set to trail most G7 nations, a think tank’s analysis shows
High inflation and low growth will further the decline in UK living standards, pushing the country behind its economic peers, the UK-based Centre for Economics and Business Research (CEBR) has predicted.
The forecast, set out in the CEBR’s annual World Economic League Table released on Friday, projects that the UK will fall from 19th to 22nd in global GDP per capita rankings by 2030, being overtaken by Hong Kong, Finland, and the UAE. British living standards are expected to slip behind those of former colony Malta by 2035.
In dollar terms, UK GDP per capita is forecast at $58,775 for next year.
According to the report, Britain’s GDP per capita growth is set to be the second-weakest in the G7 over the next five years, trailing only Japan.
CEBR economist Pushpin Singh said the UK confronts a “triple challenge” of high inflation, high debt, and low growth. He warned that competitiveness is being eroded by rival nations with lower taxes and lighter regulation, while an “inability to shrink state spending” persists.
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The report noted that 2025 marked the first full year in office for the Labour government. “Having been elected on a platform to boost growth, only very limited success has been achieved,” it said, estimating that the economy grew by just 1.4% in 2025 and projecting an average annual growth rate of around 1.5%.
Singh warned the outlook remains “very much skewed to the downside,” adding that Britain was in some ways “still very much living off its past glories,” and that pre-budget speculation over potential tax rises had itself handicapped economic activity in recent months.
Official data shows British households are still poorer than before the Covid-19 pandemic, with real disposable income per head yet to recover to its 2019 level amid a prolonged cost-of-living crisis.
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