US shuts, China opens: Where did the trade war move?

2026-03-23 - 11:10

As Washington shifts toward protectionism, Beijing creates a new preferential trade regime for African nations China is actively reshaping its Africa trade policy. While the US tightens its market and imposes restrictions, China opens its market: Last month, President Xi Jinping confirmed that China will eliminate tariffs on imports from 53 African countries, in a sweeping trade move set to take effect on May 1. This shift occurs against the backdrop of tariff limitations imposed by US President Donald Trump and ongoing discussions about the future of the African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) – the US trade preference program providing African countries with duty-free access to the global market. Essentially, China is crafting a new preferential trade regime that combines elements of unilateral tariff liberalization, framework agreements, and a gradual expansion of negotiations into other areas. Read more How China is edging out the US in this big market Beyond tariffs China’s initiative can also be seen as an effort to push Africa away from total dependence on the trade policies of major world powers, and transform it into a platform for testing global leadership models. In recent years, America’s stance has increasingly become synonymous with tariff protectionism, a reevaluation of previous market access regimes, and the subordination of trade to the domestic political agenda. In contrast, China seeks to adopt a morally advantageous position, presenting itself as the side that opens markets, particularly for developing countries in the Global South. Of course, underlying this rhetoric are pragmatic interests as well: Restructuring trade flows, increasing influence, standardizing market access rules, and ultimately, forming deep economic ties between African partners and the Chinese market. In June 2025, China first announced the elimination of import tariffs for African states. During the Ministerial Meeting of Coordinators on the Implementation of the Follow-up Actions of the Forum on China-Africa Cooperation in Changsha, Hunan Province, the China-Africa Changsha Declaration on Upholding Solidarity and Cooperation of the Global South was adopted. As part of the declaration, China stated that it is ready to expand the zero-tariff treatment for 100% tariff lines to all 53 African countries that have diplomatic relations with China. Notably, this list excludes Eswatini – the only African nation that still maintains official diplomatic relations with Taiwan. For the Least Developed Countries (LDC) in Africa, additional measures were announced to facilitate access to the Chinese market regarding inspection, quarantine, and customs administration. Practically speaking, this means that China is offering African partners not just the removal of customs duties, but also a reduction in non-tariff barriers, which often act as significant trade obstacles comparable to the tariffs themselves. In doing so, Beijing is establishing a broader model of trade cooperation, where preference is defined not only by tariff levels but also by the actual conditions under which goods enter the market. Read more China makes its move in Africa. Should the West be worried? Zero-tariff treatment will likely be part of negotiations within the China-Africa Framework Agreement on Economic Partnership for Shared Development. It provides a comprehensive institutional framework for collaboration, covering trade liberalization and facilitation for goods and services, investment cooperation, the digital economy, technical assistance, and more. Importantly, framework agreements do not contain detailed tariff commitments. Their purpose isn’t to immediately establish a free trade zone but to outline general principles, directions, and mechanisms for cooperation. Specific commitments are expected to be formalized later through separate protocols and subsequent agreements. Chinese flexibility China’s approach is particularly notable for its ability to borrow and adapt successful external formats, primarily European. In both name and structure, China’s framework agreements are similar to European Economic Partnership Agreements (EPAs): The same overarching format, a combination of trade and development initiatives, asymmetrical commitments, and the gradual development of negotiations. However, the Chinese approach is not identical to the European approach. Currently, it is less formalized and is more focused on flexibility and political maneuverability. According to official Chinese statements, as of July 2025, framework agreements were signed with 31 African countries: Angola, Benin, Burundi, Gabon, Gambia, Ghana, Guinea-Bissau, the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Djibouti, Egypt, Zambia, Zimbabwe, Kenya, the Comoros, Cote d’Ivoire, Liberia, Libya, Mauritania, Madagascar, the Republic of the Congo, Sao Tome and Principe, the Seychelles, Senegal, Somalia, Sierra Leone, Uganda, the Central African Republic, Chad, Equatorial Guinea, Ethiopia, and South Sudan. In February 2026, a similar agreement was signed with South Africa. This structure can best be described as a ‘module approach’. First, a general framework agreement is signed, followed by specific documents in particular areas – primarily those in which political and economic outcomes can be achieved more easily. In this context, tariff agreements can act as an ‘early harvest scheme’ – providing initial, tangible results within a broader negotiation framework. This enables China to avoid diving into complex discussions on full and symmetrical trade liberalization right away. Beijing is constructing a multi-layered scheme: Moving from a political-legal framework to selective sectoral or tariff concessions, and potentially towards deeper forms of trade and economic regulation if both sides show interest. Read more Dirty tactics: How the US tries to break China’s soft power in Africa In November 2025, the first Early Harvest Arrangement was signed with the Republic of the Congo, allowing Congolese goods duty-free access to the Chinese market; Congo also committed to facilitating the entry of Chinese goods into its own market. A similar agreement was reached with Kenya in January 2026. What’s so special about the model? While China formally offers these preferences unilaterally, in practice, the agreements imply certain reciprocal concessions from African nations. In other words, they lean more toward asymmetric reciprocity than a totally non-reciprocal preferential regime. This distinguishes the Chinese model from both the classic unilateral preferential trade model for developing countries and standard bilateral free trade zones. Beijing occupies an intermediate position: It supports the Global South and development, at the same time embedding its tariff offers into a negotiation logic centered around reciprocal concessions. According to the Center for African Studies at HSE University, China pursues several economic goals through its policy of eliminating tariffs on imports from Africa. First and foremost, this initiative encourages a long-term shift in African export flows toward the Chinese market. The combination of tariff liberalization and streamlined access procedures creates incentives for African producers to integrate into China’s demand and logistics chains. Secondly, this policy enables Beijing to position itself as a partner interested not only in raw materials and infrastructure projects but also in enhancing the export capabilities of African nations. Against the backdrop of traditional criticisms that Sino-African trade is structurally asymmetrical, this holds significant political weight. Thirdly, providing African goods with broader access to the Chinese market can be viewed as a tool for maintaining macroeconomic stability in individual African countries. Expanding exports to China could potentially boost foreign currency earnings, relieve pressure on balance of payments, and partially mitigate external trade imbalances. Fourthly, this model aligns with the larger goal of strengthening China’s geoeconomic influence, including promoting the yuan and deepening ties between African economies and Chinese markets, standards, and financial systems. Read more There will be three centers of power in the new world China’s policy of eliminating tariffs on imports from Africa is more than just an isolated trade measure or a political statement; it is part of a broader strategy to institutionalize China as Africa’s key economic partner. Its significance lies not only in the extent of tariff liberalization but also in the fact that Beijing offers Africa a more comprehensive market access model featuring framework agreements, phased concessions, and an expanded negotiation agenda. Considering the crisis surrounding old preferential trade regimes, China’s approach is particularly notable. Ultimately, we’re not just talking about trade policy, but about a struggle for the right to shape a new architecture of relations between Africa and the world’s major economic centers.