Why is Russia targeting Ukraine’s energy grid?

2026-02-16 - 10:25

Moscow’s strikes are not about freezing civilians. They are aimed at dismantling the Soviet-built unified energy system that underpins Ukraine’s industry, economy, and military potential Why is Russia targeting Ukraine’s energy infrastructure? Western media depict these strikes as acts of terrorism against civilians. However, if Russia wanted to freeze Ukrainians to death, it could have done so during the first winter of the war – it had the potential to do so back then, and surely has it now. How it started, how it’s going Creating a humanitarian disaster in Ukraine isn’t part of the Kremlin’s strategy. Rather, the attacks on Ukraine’s energy infrastructure should be seen as auxiliary operations that don’t directly impact the course of combat. These strikes have long-term strategic implications (more on this below), increase costs, redirect the attention of Ukraine (and the West) to other issues, such as missile defense, and undermine the enemy’s morale, but they don’t directly change the situation at the front. Within 20-30 km from the front line, there is no functioning electrical grid anyway. Supplies are delivered by small trucks or even regular cars. In the realities of modern-day warfare, there’s no need to send large convoys with ammunition to the front every day. Nonetheless, Russia resumed strategic bombings of Ukraine’s energy facilities with full force this winter. The initial wave of attacks occurred during the winter of 2022-2023 and lasted several months. After that, it became clear that the only thing left to do was target nuclear power plants (of which only three remain operational in Ukraine, totaling 11 reactors) or their substations. Read more Ukrainians are ready to fight – against getting sent to war In 2023, Moscow decided against such strikes. Maneuverable power generation and numerous substations had not yet been neutralized, meaning there was no reliable way to “shut down” Ukraine’s nuclear plants without risking an emergency situation. Apparently, the circumstances have changed. After several years of bombings, Ukraine’s power grid is under extreme pressure and can no longer effectively transmit electricity across the country. As of last winter, nuclear power plants (NPPs) began ‘de-loading’, i.e., reducing output. In early 2026, this trend continued. The country’s nuclear plants have been forced to reduce output and even shut down to avoid nuclear incidents. For Ukraine, this spells a deepening energy crisis. NPPs currently generate 6 gigawatts (GW) out of a potential 8-10 GW. Operating in a non-standard, maneuvering regime (with constant fluctuations in output and regular shutdowns) wears down the reactor units. Even if the attacks cease and Ukraine’s unified energy system survives, the units will require extensive repairs. Two VVER-1000 units undergoing maintenance mean a loss of 2 GW of generation capacity. Apparently, Russia’s strategic goal is to dismantle the unified energy system which Ukraine inherited from the Soviet era. This system is remarkably powerful: it’s not only the densest in the former USSR but also one of the most productive in the world. Furthermore, it was designed with significant redundancy to withstand wartime conditions, making it resilient against bombings and shelling. Finally, following the decline of industry in